Guyana.org Guyana News and Information Discussion Forums Political Discussions Do you believe the recession is near its bottom
Guyana News and Information Discussion Forums Political Discussions Do you believe the recession is near its bottomModerators: Admin
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Registered:: October 04, 2006
Posts: 9307
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Posted
and will not sink further but will form a base and turn around ?
can we see stability within months ? |
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Registered:: October 04, 2006
Posts: 9307
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Posted
The Commerce Department said orders for manufactured goods rose 1.8 percent in February, reversing six straight monthly declines and easily beating estimates of another drop. Other economic indicators came in better than expected Wednesday, including construction spending and pending home sales.
Meanwhile, world leaders meeting in London on Thursday pledged $1.1 trillion to global institutions such as the International Monetary Fund to combat the downturn. And the European Central Bank agreed to cut a key interest rate to a record low of 1.25 percent. link |
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Registered:: October 04, 2006
Posts: 9307
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New signs emerge that recession may be near bottom
link By CHRISTOPHER S. RUGABER, AP Economics Writer Christopher S. Rugaber, Ap Economics Writer – 1 hr 34 mins ago WASHINGTON – New signs that the recession could be nearing a bottom emerged Thursday, as factory orders were far better than expected and the Dow industrials surged over 8,000 for the first time in two months. The Commerce Department said orders for manufactured goods rose 1.8 percent in February, reversing six straight monthly declines and easily beating estimates of another drop. Other economic indicators came in better than expected Wednesday, including construction spending and pending home sales. Meanwhile, world leaders meeting in London on Thursday pledged $1.1 trillion to global institutions such as the International Monetary Fund to combat the downturn. And the European Central Bank agreed to cut a key interest rate to a record low of 1.25 percent. Still, the job situation remains grim. Traditionally, the labor market doesn't pick up until well after a recovery has started. The monthly unemployment report due out Friday likely will be dismal, and new jobless claims reported Thursday were worse than expected. The Labor Department said initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to a seasonally adjusted 669,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 657,000. That total was above analysts' expectations and the highest in more than 26 years, though the work force has grown by about half since then. Financial stocks led a rally on Wall Street after the board that sets U.S. accounting standards gave banks and other companies more leeway when valuing assets and reporting losses. The Dow Jones industrial average added more than 240 points, or 3.1 percent, to 8,004 in afternoon trading, the first time it has risen above 8,000 since Feb. 10. Broader indices also surged. Bank of America Chief Executive Ken Lewis also bolstered the financial markets when he told CNBC that the recession is "getting close to the bottom." Still, economists said the jobless claims figures indicate that companies continue to lay off workers at a rapid pace. "Claims are typically one of the very first indicators to signal economic recovery, and there is no sign of that in the data yet," Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, wrote in a client note. The tally of laid-off workers claiming benefits for more than a week rose 161,000 to 5.73 million, setting a record for the 10th straight week. That also was above analysts' expectations and indicates that unemployed workers are having difficulty finding new jobs. The continuing claims data lag the initial claims by one week. An additional 1.5 million people received benefits under an extended unemployment compensation program Congress approved last year. That's as of March 14, the latest data available. Jobless benefits typically last 26 weeks, but the federal government is paying for an additional 20 to 33 weeks of compensation under the extended program, depending on each state's unemployment rate. As a proportion of the work force, the number of people on the jobless benefit rolls is the highest since May 1983. The four-week moving average of jobless claims, which smooths out weekly volatility, rose to 656,750, the highest since October 1982, when the economy was emerging from a steep recession. Employers are eliminating jobs and taking other cost-cutting measures to deal with sharp reductions in consumer and business spending. The current recession, now in its 17th month, is the longest since World War II. Economists forecast that Friday's report will show employers cut 654,000 jobs in March, while the unemployment rate increased to 8.5 percent from 8.1 percent, according to a survey by Thomson Reuters. Some economists raised their projection for job losses in March in response to the increase in claims. David Resler, chief economist at Nomura Securities International, said he now expects the department will report payroll cuts of 725,000 in March, up from a previous forecast of 680,000. Companies reduced their payrolls by 651,000 jobs in February, a record third straight month of job losses above 600,000. A private survey Wednesday said businesses cut 742,000 jobs in March. Employment at medium- and small-sized companies fell the sharpest — by a combined 614,000. The rest of the job cuts came from big firms — those with 500 or more workers_ according to the report from Automatic Data Processing Inc. and Macroeconomic Advisers LLC. More job losses were announced this week. 3M Co., the maker of Scotch tape, Post-It Notes and other products, said Tuesday it's cutting another 1,200 jobs, or 1.5 percent of its work force, because of the global economic slump. Fewer than half the jobs will be in the U.S., but include hundreds in its home state of Minnesota. The 1,200 figure includes cuts made earlier in the first quarter. Elsewhere, healthcare products distributor Cardinal Health Inc. said it would eliminate 1,300 positions, or about 3 percent of its work force, and semiconductor equipment maker KLA-Tencor Corp. said it will cut about 600 jobs, or 10 percent of its employees. Among the states, California reported the biggest increase in new claims for the week ending March 21 with a jump of more than 6,700, which it attributed to layoffs in the construction and service industries. The next largest increases were in Missouri, Kansas, Oklahoma and Iowa, according to the Labor Department data. The biggest drop was in Texas, which had 4,822 fewer claims as the trade, service, manufacturing and transportation industries cut fewer jobs. New York, Tennessee, Illinois and Virginia had the next largest declines. The Federal Reserve has cut a key benchmark interest rate to nearly zero in an effort to jump-start lending and embarked on a series of radical programs to inject billions of dollars into the financial system. The Obama administration's $787 billion stimulus package, approved by Congress in February, is trying to counter the recession by providing money for public works projects, extending unemployment benefits and helping states avoid budget cuts. __ AP Business Writer Jane Wardell in London contributed to this report. |
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Amber's GNI Gentleman Location: canada
Registered:: February 17, 2005
Posts: 13240
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Posted
The recession will start to turn around when house prices in Florida bottom out for 75, ooo dollars.
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Registered:: October 04, 2006
Posts: 9307
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if that's true then it might have started.... isnt it below 75K currently ?
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Location: Hell
Registered:: May 09, 2001
Posts: 15827
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Despite the fact sales rose we must remember they are referring to sale of inventory which have been on the market for close to a year and which prices have been reduced several times by as much as 70% in some regions .
We may be seeing a leveling off by mid this year however , we still face the credit card crises which has not yet blown up and will sometime latter this year perhaps early next year as credit card companies have now begun to negotiate with consumers to reduce/illiminate their balance by short payment on entire outstanding balance. Credit Cards companies are preparing to eat some big losses on principles owed but they are not really losing as most have been raking in super profits with 29% APR's . |
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Registered:: October 04, 2006
Posts: 9307
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yep, the story of the credit cards is looming |
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The Wastrel Location: Homeless in New York, Lil ABC dropout!
Registered:: March 22, 1999
Posts: 26967
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Posted
It will only turn around when they stop firing people.
732,000 laid off in the private sector in March is not heartening. Refinancings are using up all the bank liquidity. I give it about 2 to 3 years or even 5 years. |
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Registered:: October 04, 2006
Posts: 9307
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Kidmost, NEW YORK – Wells Fargo & Co. said Thursday that it expects record first-quarter earnings of $3 billion, easily surpassing analysts' estimates and providing an encouraging sign for corporate profits. link seems like the curve is turning... |
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Location: Hell
Registered:: May 09, 2001
Posts: 15827
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Nip ,
When Wells Fargo acquired Wachovia ,they immediately moved to restructure management and strengthen their assets division , which is headed by my very dear friend John Puckhaber VP assets . They then immediately moved to create liquidity in the credit cards divisions of Wachovia to create credit for new mortgage loans on REO's and short sales as the LTV was in their favor . But let us remember these new loans are simply buying 2008 inventory which has been depreciated as much as 70% in some parts of the country . Remember fargo is not as internationally extended as Citi and other larger behemoths but any good news is great news as it raises confidence . I still think we will be seeing more job losses this year. |
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Registered:: October 04, 2006
Posts: 9307
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Posted
Consumer confidence soars in April (2009)
By ANNE D'INNOCENZIO, AP Retail Writer Anne D'innocenzio, Ap Retail Writer – 19 mins ago NEW YORK – Hopeful signs that the worst may be over for the economy boosted Americans' moods in April, sending a closely watched barometer of sentiment to the highest level since November. The New York-based Conference Board said Tuesday that its Consumer Confidence Index rose more than 12 points to 39.2, up from a revised 26.9 in March. The reading marks the highest level since November's 44.7 and well surpasses economists' expectations for 29.5. The consumer confidence survey showed a substantial improvement in consumers' short-term outlook, including even their assessment of the job picture. Some encouraging news in areas like retail sales and housing have helped fuel a recent stock rally. A housing index showed Tuesday that home prices dropped sharply in February, but for the first time in 25 months the decline was not a record — another sign the housing crisis could be bottoming. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 13.78 to 8,038.78 by midmorning as investors set aside worries about spread of swine flu and the viability of banks. Improvements in the stock market have helped boost shoppers' moods, said Gary Thayer, chief economist at Wachovia Securities, but major economic problems remain — and that means that confidence could bounce up and down for awhile, he said. "We can't say we have seen the bottom of the economy," he said. "We still have some economic concerns that we have to work through." Economists closely monitor consumer sentiment because consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity. The huge jump in confidence follows a small increase in March, following a freefall in February. Still, the index remains well below year-ago levels of 62.8. The April gains were fueled by "a significant improvement in the short-term outlook," Lynn Franco, director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center, said in a statement. She added that the index measuring how shoppers feel now, which posted a moderate gain, offered "a sign that conditions have not deteriorated further and may even moderately improve in the second quarter." The Present Situation rose slightly to 23.7 from 21.9 last month. The Expectations Index, which measures how shoppers feel about the economy over the next six months, skyrocketed to 49.5 from 30.2 in March. That sharp increase — which marked the largest jump since a 13-point gain in November 2005 when the economy was recovering from Hurricanes Katrina and Rita — suggests that people believe the economy is nearing a bottom, Franco said. Still, she noted that the index remains well below the level associated with strong economic growth. "It looks like the worst is behind us, but clearly we are not out of the woods," said Franco. With companies continuing to lay off workers, a major fear is that people will cut back their spending even more, and that could plunge the economy further into a downward spiral. Economists expect the unemployment rate — now at 8.5 percent and the highest since late 1983 — will hit 10 percent by the end of the year and keep climbing next year before it starts coming down. Meanwhile, investors are becoming more unsettled by the possibility of a major swine flu outbreak, which could stall economic recovery — particularly in regions that depend on travel and tourism. Adam York, an economist at Wachovia Securities, said such a development could dampen confidence levels for May, but it's still early to tell. The consumer confidence survey showed that those anticipating business conditions will worsen over the next six months declined to 25.3 percent from 37.8 percent, while those expecting conditions to improve increased to 15.6 percent from 9.6 percent in March. The employment outlook was also considerably less pessimistic. The percentage of consumers anticipating fewer jobs in the months ahead declined to 33.6 percent from 41.6 percent, while those expecting more jobs increased to 13.9 percent from 7.3 percent. link |
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Registered:: October 04, 2006
Posts: 9307
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Kidmost, more signs in the positive... apparently. NEW YORK – Hopeful signs that the worst may be over for the economy boosted Americans' moods in April, sending a closely watched barometer of sentiment to the highest level since November. The New York-based Conference Board said Tuesday that its Consumer Confidence Index rose more than 12 points to 39.2, up from a revised 26.9 in March. The reading marks the highest level since November's 44.7 and well surpasses economists' expectations for 29.5. see above link. |
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Location: Doggie Pinkville
Registered:: June 23, 2006
Posts: 13172
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Posted
forecloures, unemployment, bankruptcy is still on the rise .... the recession has not yet bottom out .. a few yrs away. No one know exactly how many yrs away.
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Location: Hell
Registered:: May 09, 2001
Posts: 15827
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Posted
One can only assess the bottom when job losses cease and unemployment flatlines . Then the growth will be slow and painful .
Lucky for us Larry Summers and all the american economic advisors to Obama have been listening to France's Min of Finance Christine Lagarde suggestions of financial strategies and implementing them . Her years and experience as executive and latter president of the global strategic committee served her well . She was vehement about the economic structures and financial systems of G20 nations requiring reforms , restructuring and regulations to meet mutual dependencies . Now that her strategies have ignited the lazy sleepy France back into a position of real significant international leadership she will become a leading economic world advisor . I believe american economists were having a very hard time interpreting and understanding the crises . Had Obama not have private discreet meetings with other economists of the world we would still be in the dentists chair screaming and hollering . |
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Registered:: October 04, 2006
Posts: 9307
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Tuco/Kidmost
more on the brighter side from the Feds... WASHINGTON – Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress Tuesday that the economy should pull out of a recession and start growing again later this year. ... "We continue to expect economic activity to bottom out, then to turn up later this year," he told lawmakers. Recent data suggest the recession may be loosening its firm grip on the country, Bernanke said. "The pace of contraction may be slowing," he said. It was similar to an observation the Fed made last week in deciding not to take any additional steps to shore up the economy. The housing market, which has been in a slump for three years, has shown some signs of bottoming, he said. Consumer spending, which collapsed in the second half of last year, came back to life in the first quarter. link |
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Registered:: October 04, 2006
Posts: 9307
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Tuco, check out Chairman Ben Bernanke's assessment from the above link. He thinks the recession will be over this year and the economy should start growing THIS YEAR ! ?? |
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Location: Doggie Pinkville
Registered:: June 23, 2006
Posts: 13172
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I dont blame Bernanke for saying that .. he is trying to be optimistic and ease fear. Thats is their job. However, recent indicators still show that we are not even near to the end. |
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Registered:: October 04, 2006
Posts: 9307
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Tuco, some more positives... check the link below.
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Registered:: October 04, 2006
Posts: 9307
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Evidence piling up that worst of recession is over
WASHINGTON – Evidence is piling up that the worst part of the recession has ended. But that doesn't mean the pain is over. A better-than-expected unemployment report Friday — job losses declined to the lowest level in six months — capped a week of encouraging news, including firmer home sales, a revival in consumer spending and fresh optimism about the biggest U.S. banks. The economy remains vulnerable to further shocks, and 13.7 million people are unemployed. The jobless rate rose to 8.9 percent in the new report and still seems headed for a stinging 10 percent. Yet confidence is building that the recession, the longest since the Great Depression, will end this summer or fall, setting the stage for a slow recovery. Pointing to recent improvements, President Barack Obama said Friday "the gears of our economic engine do seem to be slowly turning once again." By some measures, the darkest months have passed. The plunges in economic activity and rising waves of layoffs, seen from the end of 2008 through the start of this year, seem to have subsided. . . . Wall Street investors could see the sunlight, too. The Dow Jones industrials gained nearly 165 points and finished 4.4 percent higher for the week. It was the eighth gain for the index in nine weeks. link |
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Registered:: October 04, 2006
Posts: 9307
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in these tough times a light at the end of tunnel means a lot!!
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Registered:: October 04, 2006
Posts: 9307
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Tuco/Kiddo in March the Dow was below 7000. floating above 8000 currently seems to be attracting investors. your take ? |
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Registered:: June 28, 2002
Posts: 33840
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The more you tend to go towards the light, the farther it appears to be. |
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Location: Hell
Registered:: May 09, 2001
Posts: 15827
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Posted
when energy prices are expected to go up and do demand is created and the market goes up . Given the existing state of affairs with unemployment and ailing companies the stock market skyrocketing no longer reflects anything about the state of the economy . The Feds lack of ability to interpret markets and understand the correlations is what caused the problem in the first place . Feds need to newer more solid indicators . Reminds me of when Spitzer was NY attorney general he took many wall street firms to civil court for practices which led to the crises . Spitzer could have brought these folks up on Criminal charges but he was not looking to kill Wall Street , just to let them know and understand that there was a need for serious urgent reforms . While all this was going on the Feds remained silent believing if Wall Street is doing good so is america , well...it is not so anymore as was proven wrong last fall. This is why the feds were caught with their pants down around their knees . |
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Registered:: October 04, 2006
Posts: 9307
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true the FEDS were caught napping and failed to interpret data to aviod the crash. and yes younger brighter minds must be hired to charter the new recovery road ahead. Regarding wall street, I still believe it has a significant role to play. Signs of recovery are there but NOT as was taken for granted in the past. It can only be GRADUAL recovery at this stage.
more data are coming in to support an end to the recession but the days of rocketing recovery and profits are gone. |
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Registered:: April 29, 2008
Posts: 10239
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Posted
Here is an excerp from an email that I received from The Oxford Club....
Dear Investment U Reader, Right now investors are fleeing safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasuries and the dollar. And they're putting the capital back to work in the riskiest of investments - emerging markets and IPOs. Hard to believe. But here's the proof... In the first week of May, $4 billion found its way back into emerging markets funds - the eighth-largest weekly inflow on record, according to Merrill Lynch. And year-to-date the FTSE Renaissance IPO Composite Index is up 17.5%, torching the impressive 7.3% run-up by the Nasdaq. If you ask me, that's pretty convincing: Our appetite for risk is back. And the current rally could very well continue. I am still sitting on the sideline ..... just waiting for the Credit Card Tsuname looming. |
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Registered:: October 04, 2006
Posts: 9307
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Posted
WASHINGTON – Construction of new homes jumped in May by the largest amount in three months, an encouraging sign that the nation's deep housing recession was beginning to bottom out. The Commerce Department said Tuesday that construction of new homes and apartments jumped 17.2 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 532,000 units. That was better than the 500,000-unit pace that economists had expected and came after construction fell in April to a record low of 454,000 units. In another encouraging sign, applications for building permits, seen as a good indicator of future activity, rose 4 percent in May to an annual rate of 518,000 units. The better-than-expected rebound in construction was the latest sign that the prolonged slump in housing is coming to an end, which would be good news for the broader economy. The current recession — the longest since the Great Depression — was triggered by a collapse in the housing market that led to soaring loan losses and a banking system crisis. A healthy home market is needed to support an economic recovery. link Kiddo.... signs of recovery ? |
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Registered:: October 04, 2006
Posts: 9307
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Posted
Russia, China, others urge diverse monetary system
YEKATERINBURG, Russia – Brazil, Russia, India and China on Tuesday called for a more diversified international monetary system, but wrapped up their first full-fledged summit by avoiding any explicit criticism of the world's dominant currency, the U.S. dollar. The statement issued by the leaders from the so-called BRIC nations contained no reference to developing new reserve currencies to complement the dollar, which Russia had called for at a separate event earlier in the day. Instead, the cautious wording appeared to reflect China's concerns that any anti-dollar statements could erode the value of its currency reserves. "There is a strong need for a stable, predictable and more diversified international monetary system," the final statement said. A reformed financial and economic architecture should be based on "democratic and transparent decision-making and implementation process at the international financial organizations," it said. The BRIC nations urged the international community to keep the multilateral trading system stable, curb trade protectionism and they stressed a commitment to "advance the reform of international financial institutions to reflect changes in the world economy." The group repeated long-standing calls that emerging economies like Brazil, Russia, India and China be given greater representation at major institutions like the International Monetary Fund or the World Bank. The document called for broader cooperation in the energy sphere, diversifying energy resources and energy transit routes. It also underlined support for a "more democratic and just multipolar world order based on the rule of international law, equality, mutual respect, cooperation, coordinated action and collective decision making of all states." The wording reflected a longtime call by China and Russia, shared by other developing nations, for a bigger say in global affairs to counter what they see as the U.S. domination in global affairs. The absence of any criticism of the U.S. dollar appeared to be a compromise by Russia. President Dmitry Medvedev said earlier Tuesday that the creation of new reserve currencies in addition to the dollar was needed to stabilize global finances. Brazil will host the next summit of the BRIC meeting in 2010. link |
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Registered:: October 04, 2006
Posts: 9307
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Posted
Almost every state is suffering from the effects of the recession, but not every state accounts for 12 percent of the national gross domestic product. According to AP, if California goes down, so goes the nation: California's annual $1.7 trillion economy is the world's eighth-largest economy and provides a significant chunk of tax revenue for the government; California alone funds many social programs for the entire nation. Like the Big Three automakers, California may be "too big to fail." If the state implodes, the ripple effect could slow the entire nation's recovery from the recession. Burt P. Flickinger, a retail consultant, tells AP: "California is the key catalyst for U.S. retail sales, and if California falls further you will see the U.S. economy suffer significantly." is there and end ...link |
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I pity the fool Location: London, UK
Registered:: November 23, 2002
Posts: 9465
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California is bankrupt. Just ask the governor.
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The Wastrel Location: Homeless in New York, Lil ABC dropout!
Registered:: March 22, 1999
Posts: 26967
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Hollywood is in California.
The worse the recession, the better for Hollywood. |
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Registered:: October 04, 2006
Posts: 9307
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NEW YORK – More plans to build homes, higher stock prices and fewer people filing first-time claims for jobless aid sent a private-sector forecast of U.S. economic activity higher than expected in June.
It was the third straight monthly increase for the New York-based Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators, and another sign pointing toward the recession ending later this year. link |
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Location: Hell
Registered:: May 09, 2001
Posts: 15827
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Posted
No economy turns around until unemployment flatlines and start an upward growth that is the bottomline .
banks are posting earnings but credit is still tight . These bastards increasing earnings not by way of growth but by cutting back and raising fees . Housing is still volatile in most of the USA . NY has it's pockets of weak , moderate and very strong markets which is difficult to gage the NY market conditions . The prices for housing in weak markets will drop maybe 3.5% more by fall 2009. Strong markets will not see increase in prices . Shopping malls are teetering on the brink as well as retail chains . commercial vacany rates are increasing more rapidly this second quarter in NY , elsewhere it's a nightmare . Deep cash pockets are hovering for the kill ! |
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Registered:: October 04, 2006
Posts: 9307
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California hopes to end IOUs with budget agreement
link SACRAMENTO, Calif. – California may soon be able to stop printing IOUs now that Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and legislative leaders have agreed on a compromise plan to close the state's $26 billion shortfall without tax increases. The governor and lawmakers announced the compromise late Monday, nearly three weeks after the state began issuing pay-you-later warrants to thousands of state contractors and vendors. Many recipients had trouble finding someone to take them after several major banks stopped accepting IOUs. The four legislative leaders will begin selling the plan to other lawmakers Tuesday as the best way to get the state back on firm financial ground and prevent further sinking of the state's credit rating, already the lowest in the nation. A contentious vote is expected Thursday. The agreement composed of cuts, borrowing and fund shifts was not expected to resolve California's financial problems as the economy continues to struggle and tax revenue lags far behind the level of the boom years. "This is, of course, one of the most difficult economic times to face our state since the Great Depression, so none of these were easy choices," said Assembly Minority Leader Sam Blakeslee, R-San Luis Obispo. "I think we selected a path which will lead the state back to the point where we will be strong." Personal income fell this year in California for the first time in 70 years, leading to a 34 percent plunge in income tax revenue during the first half of the year. The $26.3 billion shortfall amounts to nearly 30 percent of the state's general fund, the account that pays for day-to-day state services. The sheer size of the deficit meant that any effort to balance the state's books would be felt throughout the state, from college students seeing a sharp increase in fees to local police and fire departments that face cuts as the state takes about $4 billion from city and county governments. |
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Registered:: October 04, 2006
Posts: 9307
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dont forget when Obama entered the White House the economy was heading for deep south!! thus its good to see a gradual recovery or indicators for a gradual recovery. With the banks returning billions to the feds, there must be positive signs the banks are seeing. I hear you that they are cutting back and raising fees. THe banks may not have a choice but to cut back. Hopefully the rising fees you talked about will start reversing itself soon. |
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Location: canada
Registered:: December 26, 2004
Posts: 2917
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Manufacturing-create jobs-no jobs-no spending. |
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Location: Hell
Registered:: May 09, 2001
Posts: 15827
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dude we gave away manufacturing . The jobs that were given away wont be coming back ever .
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Registered:: January 10, 2004
Posts: 5128
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something I posted on another site a few days ago which may be relevant here: Revenues can be manipulated in many ways to boost earnings, especially when the Gov’t is part of the network: 1. Assets sold off and the dollar value added to the books 2. Corporations having a lot of money which are TARP related or similar. I will explain #2. Many of these corporations “returned” the TARP money, however, it is actually a cunning maneuver that basically deceives the public. The public thinks that these companies are actually healthy because they have cash on the balance sheet even after returning the TARP money. The trick was, the corporations in order to cover the TARP “returned”, issued many shares which in turn raised much of the cash they have, and it contributes to a healthy looking balance sheet. The challenge is to find out where the money came from to acquire these newly issued shares. One can say the public but I find that hard to believe when unemployment is so high and 1 in 8 house holds in the US are in trouble with there mortgage (behind in payments, are in the process of losing their homes or have already lost their homes) Therefore, the most like place where the money came from to purchase these newly issued shares is from the Gov.t – IMO. I could be wrong but someone will need to show where all this extra money floating around in the stock market came from. The peculiar thing is that the pull back in June was gradual but this run up which we have seen the past two weeks is very step, it does not look right and defies the normal pattern of a free trading market. The run up should be gradual but in the last two weeks it has been linear and the amplitude abnormally high for the time period. If, instead, there is no interference in the market then we could be in for a super size run up for the next moth, on the other hand we could be in for a steep decline over the next two weeks; I have to use science as my guide and lean towards the latter. We will have to wait and see if I am proven right, or wrong. I should note that I track a basket Canadian and US stocks. |
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Registered:: February 15, 2009
Posts: 497
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Definitely not!
Even worse, instead of recession we should expect another crash like the one in August 2008. |
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Location: Hell
Registered:: May 09, 2001
Posts: 15827
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Dude the international billionaires club have bought much of these split stocks to beef up the cash flow of the companies . Guys like Buffet etc have gone out and recruited billionaires to buy these stocks , it was not a secret govt buy in . Confidence if definitely increasing rapidly. Many Credit card companies made deals with consumers whose credit card debt was over a certain level to pay off the outstanding at a discount and many consumers have . The markets are so open and uncontrollable today that it is almost impossible for anyone to intelligently anticipate where it will go over the next few weeks but looking as the level of growing confidence one can only assume ...up ! Some assets I had on the market since Oct 08 is now being liquidated at 25% below 2007's value but it reflects markets are beginning to jiggle. |
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Registered:: October 04, 2006
Posts: 9307
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Dow tops 9,000 as home sales rise for 3rd month
link |
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Registered:: October 04, 2006
Posts: 9307
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Canada is emerging from recession: Flaherty
Thu Jul 23, 9:59 am ET TORONTO (Reuters) – The Canadian economy has stabilized and is starting to pull out of recession, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said on Thursday. "The indicators are that the economy has stabilized and that we're moving into a period of modest economic growth," Flaherty told reporters. link |
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Registered:: June 28, 2002
Posts: 33840
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This spells bad news for the liberal Party of canada. |
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Registered:: October 04, 2006
Posts: 9307
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WASHINGTON – Employers throttled back on layoffs in July, cutting just 247,000 jobs, the fewest in a year, and the unemployment rate dipped to 9.4 percent, its first decline in 15 months. It was a better-than-expected showing that offered a strong signal that the recession is finally ending. ....... [B] Analysts were forecasting job losses to slow to around 320,000 and the unemployment rate to tick up to 9.6 percent. The dip in the unemployment rate — from June's 9.5 percent — was the first since April 2008. link |
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Location: Doggie Pinkville
Registered:: June 23, 2006
Posts: 13172
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we are probably looking at a turn around towards the ends of Obama 1st term. Not before that.
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printer & toner dude Location: home
Registered:: March 22, 2001
Posts: 33038
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in time for the 2nd term eh  |
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Location: Doggie Pinkville
Registered:: June 23, 2006
Posts: 13172
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Posted
politics is a funny game. |
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Registered:: October 04, 2006
Posts: 9307
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Posted
TI here is more for you:
Stocks jump as Fed raises view of economy NEW YORK – A more upbeat Federal Reserve is reassuring investors that they've been making the right bets. Stocks bounded higher Wednesday after the central bank said the economy appears to be "leveling out" rather than simply shrinking at a slower rate. The Fed's more positive take on the economy compared with its assessment in June wasn't surprising but it still bolstered hopes that the economy is in fact rebounding. Wednesday's advance restarted the market's summer rally after a pause on Monday and Tuesday. Major market indexes jumped more than 1 percent, including the Dow Jones industrial average, which jumped 120 points. ... Stocks have been rallying much of the past four weeks on expectations that the economy is strengthening. The Fed also said it would slow the pace of its program to buy $300 billion worth of Treasury securities so that it will close at the end of October, rather than September as originally intended ... Investors found encouragement, however, from a range of industries. .... link |
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Location: Hell
Registered:: May 09, 2001
Posts: 15827
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Posted
whats funny about ? when it sucks the life blood from citizens ! |
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Location: Hell
Registered:: May 09, 2001
Posts: 15827
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Posted
Nip bai , dont worry with what the feds and experts say ...just keep looking at the unemployment rate ...if this does not drop far below 9.6 as it stands right now you know we are heading into another year of continued recession . However , lets understand that this recession is very regional as some states seem to be doing great. Experts are still very baffled by the recession and why only certain regions are directly effected by it . I was in Canada for sometime last week before last and I can tell you there are regions in Canada that are doing just fine and some that are really hurting . When just about 10% of a population is unemployed it is serious trouble . |
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Location: Hell
Registered:: May 09, 2001
Posts: 15827
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I say before because Obama has been proactive and aggressive which has infected other major economies . The bottomline is how much confidence he can instill in americans and the world and I believe we are making a fast rapid recovery . God I love this friken country ! |
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Registered:: October 04, 2006
Posts: 9307
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Posted
Kidmost,Alex,TI, Raymond, Mitwah, PP, Mr.T et al take note of the Dow: March.... 6000+ April....7000+ June....8000+ Aug.....9000+ an immediate steady upward trend is not written in stone but surely there seems to be a trend in formation!! |
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The Wastrel Location: Homeless in New York, Lil ABC dropout!
Registered:: March 22, 1999
Posts: 26967
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Posted
Dow will hit 12 by year end.
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Registered:: October 04, 2006
Posts: 9307
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I like your comedy  anything between 9K & 10K should be sustainable! |
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Registered:: October 04, 2006
Posts: 9307
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Bernanke says recession 'very likely over'
link AP – Federal Reserve Bank Board Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks at the Brookings Institution in Washington, Tuesday, … By JEANNINE AVERSA, AP Economics Writer Jeannine Aversa, Ap Economics Writer – 21 mins ago WASHINGTON – Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Tuesday the worst recession since the 1930s is probably over, although he cautioned that pain — especially for the nearly 15 million unemployed Americans — will persist. Bernanke said the economy likely is growing now, but he warned that won't be sufficient to prevent the unemployment rate, now at a 26-year high of 9.7 percent, from rising. "From a technical perspective, the recession is very likely over at this point," Bernanke said in responding to questions at the Brookings Institution. "It's still going to feel like a very weak economy for some time because many people will still find that their job security and their employment status is not what they wish it was." The recession, which started in December 2007, has claimed a net total of 6.9 million jobs. With expectations for a lethargic recovery, the Fed predicts that unemployment will top 10 percent this year. The post-World War II high was 10.8 percent at the end of 1982. Some economists say it will take at least four years for the jobless rate to drop down to a more normal range of 5 percent. Even if the economy logs "moderate" growth in 2010, unemployment is likely to stay elevated, Bernanke suggested. "Unfortunately, unemployment will be slow to come down. It will come down but it may take some time," he said. "Obviously, that's a very serious concern." Drugmaker Eli Lilly & Co. said Monday that it will cut 5,500 jobs over the next two years, 14 percent of its work force, as it restructures the company into five units. Still, Bernanke's declaration that the recession likely ended marked his most optimistic assessment yet of the economy. And his remarks came on the same day that the government report that retail sales jumped 2.7 percent in August, the most in more than three years. Last month, Bernanke told a Fed conference in Wyoming that economic activity appears to be "leveling out" after declining sharply at the end of last year and into the beginning of this year. He also said that the global economy was just "beginning to emerge" from recession. Bernanke's speech to at Brookings was identical to the one he delivered at the Fed conference. Analysts predict the U.S. economy is growing in the current quarter, which ends Sept. 30, at an annual rate of 3 to 4 percent. It shrank at a 1 percent pace in the second quarter, much slower than in previous quarters. Bernanke said the economy is coping with "ongoing headwinds," including hard-to-get-credit for consumers and businesses, and households saving more, spending less and trimming their debt. Those forces can weigh down the recovery, he said. Other analysts worry that falling house prices could hamper the broader rebound, especially if they cause consumers to tighten their belts. While many on Wall Street have been encouraged by early signs of stabilization in U.S. home prices and hope the housing market may have hit bottom, others aren't so sure. Deutsche Bank analyst Karen Weaver on Tuesday predicted that national home prices won't stop sliding until next summer and likely will fall another 10.5 percent from this summer's levels. Bigger declines are expected in cites like New York, Salt Lake City, Fort Lauderdale, Fla., and Baltimore. Against that backdrop, Michael Williams, dean of Touro College's Graduate School of Business, disagreed with Bernanke's assessment that the recession probably ended. Williams maintains that troubles in both the residential and commercial real-estate markets are prolonging the downturn. Williams believes the economy is still shrinking and won't turn around until later next year. "This recession lingers," he said. Meanwhile, Bernanke said he is optimistic that Congress will enact a revamp of the nation's financial rule book to prevent a future crisis from happening. "I feel quite confident that a comprehensive reform will be forthcoming," Bernanke said. President Barack Obama on Monday urged Congress to enact legislation this year. "This has just been too big a calamity and too serious a problem" over the past year, with the near meltdown of the U.S. financial system, for Congress not to take action, Bernanke added. He spoke one year after Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy, the largest in U.S. history. It's collapse roiled financial markets worldwide, nearly halted the flow of credit and almost brought down the entire U.S. financial system. |
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Registered:: February 28, 2005
Posts: 12686
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Posted
the recession is still here...don't mek Obama fool al yu again...As a matter of fact look out for another big collapse in the financial system soon.This country going dung yoo
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Registered:: April 10, 2006
Posts: 1211
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hurry back to prospering Guyana. |
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Registered:: April 10, 2006
Posts: 1211
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Registered:: April 10, 2006
Posts: 1211
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hurry back to prospering in Guyana. |
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Registered:: February 28, 2005
Posts: 12686
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Posted
Like i said..it heading fu total destruction..mark my wurds.
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The Wastrel Location: Homeless in New York, Lil ABC dropout!
Registered:: March 22, 1999
Posts: 26967
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Posted
Experts: Recovery to be painful
By Ryan Carter, San Gabriel Valley Tribune, West Covina, Calif. San Gabriel Valley Tribune (MCT) September 16, 2009 Distributed by McClatchy - Tribune Information Services Sep. 16--The recession is probably over, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Tuesday. But don't break out the champagne just yet, according to UCLA economists. In its quarterly report out today, the UCLA Anderson Forecast says the worst economic collapse in 70 years probably ended this quarter. But the pain of recovery and the effects of recession will be around for a decade, economists said. And California? The pain will force the Golden State to lag behind the recovery as state and local governments reel from serious budget shortfalls. "Main Street is not going to feel it for a long time," said senior economist David Shulman, who wrote the report on the national outlook titled "The Long Goodbye." Still, after four quarters of decline, economic growth is resuming, Shulman said. By the end of the month, Gross Domestic Product -- the measure of all goods and services produced in the country -- will have risen at 2.1 percent, economists predicted. And it will climb to 2.3 percent next quarter, with growth continuing into next year. But the growth will be sluggish, economists warned. The unemployment picture -- which they called "ugly" -- will top 10 percent across the country. And if the San Gabriel Valley and Whittier areas mirror the nation and the state -- now at 11.9 percent -- rates in some local cities will remain in the mid to high teens. In California, employment will shrink by another 3 percent for the year. And with only a 0.2 percent growth rate in 2010, joblessness won't fall under double-digits until the end of 2011, the report said. Among the drags on the state's economy are still-shrinking state and local governments, according to the report. As sales-tax revenue dwindles, so too are government employment rolls. From Monrovia to Whittier, many local cities and school districts have had to absorb pay cuts, layoffs and furloughs. In the next couple of years, layoffs will slow, and hiring will begin revving up again as the housing market picks up and price levels adjust. Conditions are ripening for new residential construction and demand for exported goods is adding the potential for more job gains and business growth, UCLA economists said. "The overarching message is that consumption growth will be much slower than normal," Shulman said. At the core of shrinking demand are two types of consumers who are saving instead of spending, he added. There's the one who can't spend, because he's unemployed and his credit cards are maxed out. The other is the one who doesn't want to spend because his 401(k) has been decimated and his home's value is down between 20 and 50 percent, Shulman said. Also in the UCLA report, economists debated the pros and cons of the government's $787 billion stimulus. The pros? Something had to be done to prop up the financial system. The cons? It came at the wrong time and was not targeted. What was at least "timely, targeted and temporary," forecast Director Edward E. Leamer said in the report, was the government's Cash for Clunkers program, which gave consumers $3,500 and $4,500 credits for trading in their gas-guzzling cars for more fuel efficient ones. It injected cash into the economy. But whether the program's success suggested a broader economic recovery was a question Fritz Hitchcock -- owner of Industry-based Hitchcock Automotive Resources -- had an immediate answer for. Last weekend was the worst weekend in 10 years in the Los Angeles region for sales of Toyotas, Hitchcock said. The dismal numbers -- 1,016 sales among 76 dealers -- came after Toyota topped the list of vehicles that customers traded in their clunkers for. A recession ending? Hitchcock was cautiously hopeful. "I just don't agree with them," Hitchcock said of the belief that the recession could be over. "I believe the housing bubble hasn't even totally burst here in the state." ryan.carter@sgvn.com |
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Registered:: October 04, 2006
Posts: 9307
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Posted
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Registered:: June 28, 2002
Posts: 33840
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Posted
It depends on whom you are asking. Personally I think it's on it's way up. |
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Registered:: October 04, 2006
Posts: 9307
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Posted
Morgan Stanley announced on Wednesday that it had returned to profitability in the third quarter after three successive quarterly losses. The bank said it earned $498 million or 38 cents a share, compared with $7.7 billion, or $7.38 a share, in the quarter a year ago when results were helped by a one-time gain. Earnings from continuing operations were $757 million in the third quarter, after a loss of $159 million in the second quarter. The results beat expectations. Analysts had expected earnings 29 cents a share on revenues of about $6.99 billion. link |
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Location: Doggie Pinkville
Registered:: June 23, 2006
Posts: 13172
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Posted
many companies are posting bigger profits now that they cut staff and other cost. It does not mean that revenue went up.
Indicators are - increase revenue, job creation, number of new homes being built, increase in mortgage application etc. None of this is happening. |
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Registered:: October 04, 2006
Posts: 9307
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Posted
while the negative slide should be coming to an end
a windfall of profits should not be expected. should new homes be considered an indicator ? how do one logically propose building new homes in FL ? job creation is a must!! maybe new frontiers esp for job creations ? |
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Location: Doggie Pinkville
Registered:: June 23, 2006
Posts: 13172
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Home construction bad on paper and in reality http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33...usiness-real_estate/ |
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Location: Hell
Registered:: May 09, 2001
Posts: 15827
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Posted
with the toxic sheetrock from china scam going on many of the infected homes are going for $30,000. |
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Location: Hell
Registered:: May 09, 2001
Posts: 15827
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Posted
actually some institutions have repaid about 30% of the TARP already. Some TARP recipients only needed less than half of the amount earmarked . Some financial institutions are still having issues with toxic assets however , tight oversight is guiding and navigating them towards resolve . Yes , we will see , hear and feel some more pains but overall Obama has achieved a historical feat of restoring confidence domestically and globally . What is going to affect the USA severely is the mideast crises . |
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Registered:: October 04, 2006
Posts: 9307
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Posted
Dow hits 13-month high
NEW YORK (Reuters) – A broad rally for U.S. stocks sent the Dow industrials to a 13-month high on Monday after the Group of 20 pledged to keep aid flowing to the world economy, strengthening investors' desire for risk. The Dow Jones industrial average (.DJI) gained 203.52 points, or 2.03 percent, to end unofficially at 10,226.94. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index (.SPX) rose 23.78 points, or 2.22 percent, to finish unofficially at 1,093.08. The Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC) advanced 41.62 points, or 1.97 percent, to close unofficially at 2,154.06. link |
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