Guyana.org Guyana News and Information Discussion Forums Political Discussions Lehman Investment Bank report: Oil Bust in the Cards
Guyana News and Information Discussion Forums Political Discussions Lehman Investment Bank report: Oil Bust in the CardsModerators: Admin
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Member Registered:: April 04, 2008
Posts: 2278
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Posted
Is $120 oil even real? Not if you ask the Saudis, or even Lehman Bros. The investment bank’s oil expert said this week that the oil boom is due to bust. Economic growth across the globe will slow just as new refineries kick in, raising supply.
Recession or not, a U.S. slowdown will slacken demand sharply, right as new oil hits the market. "Supply is outpacing demand growth,†said Michael Waldron, Lehman’s oil strategist. "Inventories have been building since the beginning of the year. We have pretty significant projects starting soon in Saudi Arabia, and large off-shore fields in Nigeria,†he said. Lehman is now predicting prices at $83 a barrel in 2009 and as low as $70 in 2010. Although some years off, Brazil too has found as much as 8 billion barrels of light oil and gas offshore. The South American giant’s president says his country might well join OPEC when the Tupi field begins to pump, in 2011. In addition, Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds have pushed up the oil price by investing billions of their oil gains, ironically, in commodities index funds. Now they could be looking to get out, warns Waldron. He figures the money effect has driven anywhere from $20 to $30 into the barrel price. In addition, a weak dollar is holding oil prices high, according to a series of statements from OPEC leaders over the past week. If you buy the views of OPEC’s various leaders, that’s at least another $20 of oil price that is not supported by the actual supply and demand situation. In addition, Europe’s central bank seems bent on containing inflation there. A rate increase in Europe is sure to contain the euro’s rise against the dollar — if serious steps are taken soon. Couple that with a lower-than-expected rate cut in the U.S. next week, or perhaps no cut, and the oil price drops as the dollar gains ground. All this is having little immediate impact now, of course. U.S. gas prices at the pump hit $3.58 a gallon just as the summer driving season kicks off. If nothing changes, analysts now expect gas to rise to as high as $4 a gallon in as little as a month. COMMENT: Lehman had better be right, cause the freaking price of gas has me driving only on weekends. I'm parked Monday to Friday! And what is the status of Guyana's oil exploration off the coast bordering Suriname? Notice that Brazil is set to join OPEC? Think Guyana will follow anyttime soon? (Newsmax) |
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Knows the ropes Member Location: "Somewhere in Iraq"
Registered:: January 13, 2003
Posts: 8896
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Posted
Trinis still not worried, alyuh unholy ppp find any black gold yet?
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Member Registered:: February 16, 2008
Posts: 1235
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Posted
Lehman Brothers Expert is way off base.Todays Oil Prices has nothing to do with Supply & Demand or Saudi.
If this Lehman Oil Expert knew so much and what will happen in 2 years time. Why in 2005 and 2006 this Oil Expert couldn't or didn't predict what we are seeing today with oil prices. Just Imagine if he knew what is happening now on the oil market two years ago he would have been the richest man in the world 1 million times over and Lehman Brothers would have been in great shape. I want all these Bright Economist and Analyst and Wall Street Experts try to prove a simple guyana canecutter wrong. Communicator Bhai that Oil Expert need to change Jobs and he need a GAWU Union card before we can talk..... |
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I pity the fool Location: London, UK
Registered:: November 23, 2002
Posts: 7373
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Posted
You were way off base with the US economy when the housing market collapsed. So your expert knowledge is heavily suspect. I too believe oil prices will go down. Whilst Bush and Rice are doing their best to blame OPEC for the current high prices, and are asking OPEC to lower the price, none of that is based on market reality conditions. |
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Knows the ropes Member Location: India
Registered:: August 21, 2002
Posts: 6221
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Posted
Not in the near future, it will go up before it goes down. The longest futures on oil (2016) is going for $110/barrel. Yes, this is all speculative, however the issue we have is the growing demand and many believe countries like Iran and even Russia and Venez will use this tight supply situation to up the ante on the US in a concerted and coordinated way for political reasons which could provoke a possible conflict. Secondly, with many of the oil extraction in Govt hands as opposed to private Corporations, Govt's are not highly motivated to increase production in any quantum way to ease the supply/demand equation. Thirdly, any recession in the US which may free up some oil will quickly be gobbled up by China and India, thus keeping the pressure in the demand side. Fourth, most of the reserve (spare) capacity in Saudi and other places are heavy, high sulphur for which there is not much refining equipment around so this just cannot be tapped into. India's Reliance and ONGC are building this type of refineries which will allow this crude back onto the market, but it will take 3 years to bring this on-line. The truth of the matter, the US and some other nations, have been careless and wanton in their use of petrol by not altering the behavior of their consumers to be more prudent. Almost every household in the US have multiple SUV's to just ride around and do shit. Well, this is the price, the US consumes 25% of global output or which 66% goes into vehicles. Bush, Clinton, Obama, McCain, Rice, no one can change that, at least not the external factors, and not quickly. I still believe Russia could help, but is watching and waiting, they may want political concessions from the Western block, especially the US. The competing powers will not give in and will take it to the hilt with the US. This is power-play in today's world. Economic warfare has taken the place of the military cold-war and the hyper-power status of the US has very limited options in this arena, Iraq, case in point. |
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Member Registered:: February 16, 2008
Posts: 1235
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Posted
Mr T, kindly point me to where I was off base with the US Economy when the housing market collapsed. I am not claiming any expert knowledge, Oh No ....... But..... I want all these Bright Economist and Analyst and Wall Street Experts to try and prove a simple guyana canecutter wrong. |
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Member Location: GT
Registered:: November 13, 2005
Posts: 1915
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Posted
Whether the price is down to $80 or up $200 per barrel.........should be good for the Guyana Oil issue......but so far it seems that our oil potential will not be explored for a next few years.....
CGXEF has moved from $2.50 to $2.85 in a few weeks |
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Knows the ropes Member Registered:: September 05, 2006
Posts: 5095
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NA Cl Have they scrapped plans to drill later this year? If yes, what is the new schedule? |
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Member Registered:: February 16, 2008
Posts: 1235
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Where is Mr T??? http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/12400801/ Oil rises more than $11 to record high.... Some analysts forecast price could hit $150 a barrel by Fourth of July |
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I pity the fool Location: London, UK
Registered:: November 23, 2002
Posts: 7373
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Posted
It was on its way down and had reached U$122, and then Israel said they would attack Iran. It is quite clear from that that the US and Israel are doing their utmost to scare the rest of the world with a simple solution: either back us into getting Iran to abandon their nuclear plans, or oil prices will be driven up by us through fear and intimidation. But fear not, oil will be on its way down. |
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Member Registered:: February 16, 2008
Posts: 1235
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Posted
1) Mr T when exactly is the Price of Oil going to start falling??????
2)"Lehman is now predicting prices at $83 a barrel in 2009 and as low as $70 in 2010. "...... Mr T, is the Lehman EXPERTS correct????? 3) Mr T when can I start Buying Oil at the lower Prices you are talking about. (1) 2008???? (2) 2009??? or (3) 2010???. |
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I pity the fool Location: London, UK
Registered:: November 23, 2002
Posts: 7373
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Posted
Bro, we'll wait and see hwo has the last laugh. You want quick answers at future solutions. I bet you that you are scraping by to make ends meet. Your financial forecast model is based on yearly speculation, which is the foundations behind the Futures Market. There they trade money and virtual goods, not actual existing products. The smart money outside of the stock market is in the manufacturing, distribution, and sale of these products being traded, such as oil. There is where you got to keep your eyes out and watch how the things are going to turn round on the oil price. Once demand stagnates due to the high price, the stock market is going to be awash with IOUs for product delivery prices on oil that can't be delivered. Then they gonna be offloading oil like mad.
It happened with silver in the 1980's, and recently with mortgage lending. So I am confident in my forecast. You are the one living in uncertainty over it. |
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Member Location: GT
Registered:: November 13, 2005
Posts: 1915
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Posted
Mr T......you may be right about the Future........but common sense need to prevail.....else we will be very BROKE by 2009
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I pity the fool Location: London, UK
Registered:: November 23, 2002
Posts: 7373
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Posted
Bro, I thank God that I am making and selling a product that my customers don't mind risking a bit of money on. I hear from many of my business friends how things are slow to dead slow down their way. Right now I even scared to tell them that I am not seeing a drastic slowdown in the UK market, just in case they feel a way about that. But my foreign sales to previous profitable markets have in some cases dried up. Based on that alone I can detect which countries I trade with are feeling the pinch. When demands in sales drop, demands in manufacturing drops. So demand in oil will drop. But food demands are increasing, because of the spending power of those in the manufacturing sectors of the Far East. This is a fire that is flaming another fire, and at some stage it is going to turn into a maelstrom. |
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I pity the fool Location: London, UK
Registered:: November 23, 2002
Posts: 7373
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Posted
Oil dipped below U$70 today. You can go and buy the oil now bro. Christmas come early for you this year  . |
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I pity the fool Location: London, UK
Registered:: November 23, 2002
Posts: 7373
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So Baseman, you doubted my economic forecast? What you have to say now? |
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Knows the ropes Member Registered:: October 04, 2006
Posts: 6855
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Knows the ropes Member Location: India
Registered:: August 21, 2002
Posts: 6221
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Well, I have to so I did not expect the kind of meltdown that would bring things to a screeching halt so quickly. Anyawy, we are in a ST dopwn trend and an economic slowdown might buy the time to bring new capacities on stream. I still think we could see it creep up very quickly in event of one hic-up. However, I yield this to you my friend. |
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Member Registered:: February 16, 2008
Posts: 1235
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Posted
Mr T I just ask Questions, no one could have answered them at the time, the Drop in price had nothing to do with what the EXPERTS like the`Lehman fella was saying. It is more connected to the Schemes and Frauds that these VERY EXPERTS like those at LEHMANS and others at Wall Street were involved in that caused the Stock Market to Crash. Those Thieves and Crooks caused the Market to colapse and have us in thie mess today. |
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I pity the fool Location: London, UK
Registered:: November 23, 2002
Posts: 7373
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Posted
Bro, I man answered them at the time . I am not taking you to task on this. Just pointing out that you should have a bit more faith in my economic forecasting and financial knowledge. |
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Member Registered:: February 16, 2008
Posts: 1235
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